Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Dan Trade Openness Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekspor Halal Indonesia Periode 2015–2024
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Safitri Nur Faiziah
Nining
Maulana Syarif Hidayatullah
Ekspor halal Indonesia belum mencerminkan potensinya sebagai negara dengan populasi Muslim terbesar di dunia, sehingga diperlukan pemahaman mendalam tentang faktor makroekonomi yang memengaruhi daya saingnya di pasar internasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar Amerika Serikat (IDR/USD) dan keterbukaan perdagangan diukur sebagai rasio total ekspor ditambah impor terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) terhadap pertumbuhan ekspor halal Indonesia dalam perspektif jangka pendek dan jangka panjang periode Januari 2015 hingga Desember 2024. Data bulanan sebanyak 120 observasi dianalisis menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil uji kointegrasi Johansen mengkonfirmasi satu hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang yang stabil (Trace statistic = 25,809; p = 0,032). Dalam jangka panjang, depresiasi nilai tukar berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor halal, konsisten dengan Marshall-Lerner Condition. Sebaliknya, keterbukaan perdagangan berpengaruh negatif signifikan dalam jangka pendek (koefisien = -150.434; t = -2,701), mengindikasikan efek J-Curve sektoral akibat ketergantungan struktural industri halal pada bahan baku impor. Kecepatan penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan sebesar 10,96% per bulan (ECT = -0,1096; t = -2,949). Dekomposisi varians menunjukkan bahwa 91,70% variasi ekspor halal dijelaskan oleh faktor internal sektoral. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa penguatan rantai nilai halal domestik dan perluasan akses pasar preferensial lebih efektif mendorong ekspor halal dibandingkan intervensi nilai tukar semata.
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