Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Dan Trade Openness Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekspor Halal Indonesia Periode 2015–2024
Main Article Content
Safitri Nur Faiziah
Nining
Maulana Syarif Hidayatullah
Ekspor halal Indonesia belum mencerminkan potensinya sebagai negara dengan populasi Muslim terbesar di dunia, sehingga diperlukan pemahaman mendalam tentang faktor makroekonomi yang memengaruhi daya saingnya di pasar internasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar Amerika Serikat (IDR/USD) dan keterbukaan perdagangan diukur sebagai rasio total ekspor ditambah impor terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) terhadap pertumbuhan ekspor halal Indonesia dalam perspektif jangka pendek dan jangka panjang periode Januari 2015 hingga Desember 2024. Data bulanan sebanyak 120 observasi dianalisis menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil uji kointegrasi Johansen mengkonfirmasi satu hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang yang stabil (Trace statistic = 25,809; p = 0,032). Dalam jangka panjang, depresiasi nilai tukar berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor halal, konsisten dengan Marshall-Lerner Condition. Sebaliknya, keterbukaan perdagangan berpengaruh negatif signifikan dalam jangka pendek (koefisien = -150.434; t = -2,701), mengindikasikan efek J-Curve sektoral akibat ketergantungan struktural industri halal pada bahan baku impor. Kecepatan penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan sebesar 10,96% per bulan (ECT = -0,1096; t = -2,949). Dekomposisi varians menunjukkan bahwa 91,70% variasi ekspor halal dijelaskan oleh faktor internal sektoral. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa penguatan rantai nilai halal domestik dan perluasan akses pasar preferensial lebih efektif mendorong ekspor halal dibandingkan intervensi nilai tukar semata.
Abd Rahman, A., Asutay, M., & Sidek, N. Z. M. (2021). Trade openness, FDI, and halal industry growth: Evidence from OIC member countries. Journal of Islamic Marketing, 12(4), 812–835. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIMA-01-2020-0025
Alexander, S. S. (1952). Effects of a devaluation on a trade balance. IMF Staff Papers, 2(2), 263–278. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866218
Asongu, S. A., Nwachukwu, J. C., & Tchamyou, V. S. (2021). Trade openness and export performance in sub-Saharan Africa: Moderating roles of institutional quality and industrial structure. Journal of Economic Studies, 48(5), 1009–1030. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-09-2019-0436
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Devaluation and the J-curve: Some evidence from LDCs. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 500–504. https://doi.org/10.2307/1925980
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Arize, A. C. (2020). On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from Africa. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(4), 913–939. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2018.1543582
Bank Indonesia. (2024). Statistik nilai tukar rupiah 2015–2024. Departemen Statistik Bank Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik
Bashir, M. F., Tariq, Y. B., Ma, B., & Shahzad, L. (2022). Determinants of halal export performance: Institutional quality, certification infrastructure, and trade openness. Journal of Islamic Marketing, 13(4), 922–944. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIMA-03-2020-0076
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2023). Statistik Indonesia 2023. BPS–Statistics Indonesia. https://www.bps.go.id
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2024). Perkembangan ekspor dan impor Indonesia Desember 2023. BPS–Statistics Indonesia. https://www.bps.go.id
Bhagwati, J. N. (1978). Anatomy and consequences of exchange control regimes. Ballinger Publishing.
Breusch, T. S. (1978). Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models. Australian Economic Papers, 17(31), 334–355. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635
Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149–163. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532
Cheung, Y. W., & Lai, K. S. (1993). Finite-sample sizes of Johansen's likelihood ratio tests for cointegration. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 55(3), 313–328. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1993.mp55003003
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057–1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
DinarStandard. (2022). State of the global Islamic economy report 2022. DinarStandard & Salaam Gateway. https://www.salaamgateway.com
DinarStandard. (2023). State of the global Islamic economy report 2023/24. DinarStandard. https://www.salaamgateway.com
Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912773
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Enders, W. (2004). Applied econometric time series (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons
Fathoni, M. A., Fianto, B. A., & Laila, N. (2022). Determinants of halal food export from Indonesia: A gravity model approach. Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance, 8(1), 109–130. https://doi.org/10.21098/jimf.v8i1.1403
Godfrey, L. G. (1978). Testing against general autoregressive and moving average error models when the regressors include lagged dependent variables. Econometrica, 46(6), 1293–1301. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913829
Goldstein, M., & Khan, M. S. (1985). Income and price effects in foreign trade. In R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (Eds.), Handbook of international economics (Vol. 2, pp. 1041–1105). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4404(85)02011-1
Granger, C. W. J., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7
Helpman, E., & Krugman, P. R. (1985). Market structure and foreign trade: Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the international economy. MIT Press.
Jarque, C. M., & Bera, A. K. (1980). Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals. Economics Letters, 6(3), 255–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(80)90024-5
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551–1580. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938278
Kementerian Perindustrian Republik Indonesia. (2023). Laporan kinerja industri halal Indonesia 2023. Kementerian Perindustrian RI. https://www.kemenperin.go.id
Komite Nasional Ekonomi dan Keuangan Syariah (KNEKS). (2019). Masterplan ekonomi syariah Indonesia 2019–2024: Hasil kajian dan arah pengembangan. KNEKS. https://kneks.go.id
Komite Nasional Ekonomi dan Keuangan Syariah (KNEKS). (2022). Peta jalan pengembangan industri halal Indonesia 2023–2029. KNEKS.
Krugman, P. R. (1980). Scale economies, product differentiation, and the pattern of trade. American Economic Review, 70(5), 950–959.
Lerner, A. P. (1944). The economics of control: Principles of welfare economics. Macmillan.
Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New introduction to multiple time series analysis. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1
MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601–618. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199611)11:6
Magee, S. P. (1973). Currency contracts, pass-through, and devaluation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1973(1), 303–325. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534091
Majid, M. S. A., Dewi, S., & Kassim, S. (2022). Exchange rate, trade openness, and halal export performance: Evidence from Malaysia using VECM. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 56(2), 115–132. https://doi.org/10.17576/JEM-2022-5602-09
Marshall, A. (1923). Money, credit and commerce. Macmillan.
Melitz, M. J. (2003). The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity. Econometrica, 71(6), 1695–1725. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00467
Melitz, M. J., & Ottaviano, G. I. P. (2008). Market size, trade, and productivity. The Review of Economic Studies, 75(1), 295–316. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00463
Phillips, P. C. B. (1986). Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 33(3), 311–340. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(86)90001-1
Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Rogoff, K. (1996). The purchasing power parity puzzle. Journal of Economic Literature, 34(2), 647–668
Saadaoui, J., Jabeur, S. B., & Goodell, J. W. (2022). Asymmetric exchange rate effects on exports in OIC countries: An NARDL approach. Finance Research Letters, 46, Article 102460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102460
Tieman, M., Darun, M. R., & Ghazali, M. C. (2021). Global halal food trade and supply chain integration: Challenges and opportunities post-COVID-19. British Food Journal, 123(11), 3644–3660. https://doi.org/10.1108/BFJ-10-2020-0928
Tran, Q. T., Nguyen, T. H., & Le, T. H. (2022). Trade facilitation, halal certification, and export of halal food products: Evidence from developing countries. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 15(3), 501–520. https://doi.org/10.1108/IMEFM-04-2021-0156
Undang-Undang Nomor 33 Tahun 2014 tentang Jaminan Produk Halal. Lembaran Negara Republik Indonesia Tahun 2014 Nomor 295. https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Home/Details/38556
Viner, J. (1950). The customs union issue. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Vo, X. V., Nguyen, H. H., & Tran, T. A. (2023). Exchange rate, trade openness, and export performance in developing Asia: A panel VECM approach. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 59(2), 412–430. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2022.2094123
White, H. (1980). A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48(4), 817–838. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912934
Zhu, H., You, W., & Zeng, Z. (2021). The J-curve phenomenon in bilateral trade: New evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach. Applied Economics Letters, 28(17), 1481–1487. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2020.1820430
